September 20, 2010

He says the International Energy Agency in its report ETP-2010, presented today in Madrid from 1990 to 2000 CO2 emissions grew at an average of 1.1% annually from 2000 to 2007, 3% per year . The IEA warns that this trend is quite insostenble. Also in the new report explains how to curb it and to achieve that by 2050 CO2 emissions are half those of 2005.

“Achieving this reduction will be challenging and will require considerable investment. But the benefits in terms of environmental performance, greater energy security and lower energy bills will also be significant,” said the IEA’s executive director, Nobuo Tanaka, the presentation of report, Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (ETP-2010) this morning in Madrid, the Ministry of Industry.

The IEA ETP-2010 distinguishes two scenarios. One, the initial (Business as usual), in which current trends in CO2 emissions is maintained and replicated in 2050, another Blue map, which achieves a real commitment to reduce emissions and these are the half in 2005.

In the first scenario, the price of crude will increase from the current $ 78 to $ 120, while the Blue map will be a rebound to $ 90 and a drop to $ 70 in 2050. Who will benefit? With a business as usual, will be for the producing countries, with the Blue map will fall on consumers, “said Tanaka.

Inside the Blue map, the report distinguishes between two possibilities: one in which nuclear has a strong presence, and other renewables-dominated (these sources represent 48% of electricity generation). In between scenes there are differences of up to 20% in costs, being more expensive the renewables. “The issue has qualified, Tanaka, is how much you want to pay a cleaner electricity.”

In any case, Tanaka believes that “it will be necessary to resort to all sources of energy. In the case of fossil fuels, the future is to capture and sequester CO2.”

Manage energy better
Reducing energy intensity is the other main pillar on which rests the agency’s proposal. In fact, the report states that “improve energy efficiency offers the greatest potential for reducing CO2 emissions and should be the top priority in the short term.”

In this sense, the IEA states that are beginning to detect the first positive signs, and “improvement in the rate of energy efficiency in OECD countries has ampezado to accelerate again, after many years of moderate increases.” It also highlights that investment in renewables, especially wind and solar, are increasing significantly.

He insists, however, that the tencencias IEA current energy and CO2 emissions “are directly contrary to the repeated warnings of the IPCC, claiming that the next decade is crucial. “If emissions do not reach their peak around 2050 and decline steadily from that date, aboriginal women’s 50% reduction required by 2050 will be much more expensive. In fact, the opportunity may be lost entirely “.

More information:
www.iea.org